Performance
Every year. Every drop.
Backtest from 2016 to 2026-11-10, with trading and borrowing costs included. Hypothetical results, not actual trading.
Calculator
Start: 10 years ago (Nov 2016)
2.5x–3x is the recommended band. Leverage multiplies losses as well as gains.
Your $10,000 would be $70,297.
Hypothetical backtest Nov 2016 – Nov 2026, including trading and borrowing costs, before taxes. Leverage rebalanced daily. Not a guarantee of future results.
Summary
| Below 1x | Below 2x | Below 3x | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yearly return (CAGR) | +10.7% | +16.6% | +21.5% | +15.0% |
| Growth of $10,000 | $27,567 | $46,327 | $70,297 | $40,482 |
| Deepest drop (max drawdown) | −12.4% | −26.3% | −38.9% | −33.7% |
| Worst full year | −1.2% (2018) | −7.3% (2018) | −14.4% (2018) | −18.2% (2022) |
| Best full year | +21.0% (2020) | +41.3% (2020) | +62.0% (2020) | +31.2% (2019) |
| Losing years | 1 of 9 | 2 of 9 | 2 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
Year by year
| Year | Below 1x | Below 2x | Below 3x | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +13.4% | +25.2% | +37.8% | +21.7% |
| 2018 | −1.2% | −7.3% | −14.4% | −4.6% |
| 2019 | +6.8% | +9.4% | +11.4% | +31.2% |
| 2020 | +21.0% | +41.3% | +62.0% | +18.3% |
| 2021 | +15.4% | +29.4% | +43.0% | +28.7% |
| 2022 | +0.1% | −4.0% | −8.7% | −18.2% |
| 2023 | +12.5% | +17.6% | +22.0% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +10.9% | +14.3% | +16.7% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +16.4% | +27.3% | +38.4% | +17.7% |
| 2026 (YTD) | +11.8% | +18.3% | +23.7% | +10.8% |
The long test, including 2008
The same rules at 3x, run from 2003. This is the period with the 2008 crash, the hardest test for any leveraged strategy.
Yearly return
+23.5%
S&P 500: +11.2%
Deepest drop
−38.9%
S&P 500: −55.2%
2008
+33.3%
S&P 500: −36.8%
Live track record
Every signal is published here with its date, so the backtest can be checked against what really happened. Live since 2026-11-11, 1 signal so far. Members see the holdings; everyone can see the dates.
- 2026-11-11
Methodology
- Data
- Yahoo Finance daily adjusted closes
- Benchmark
- S&P 500 (SPY, dividends reinvested)
- Costs
- Trading costs on every position change; borrowing costs at T-bill + 1.5%
- Borrowing
- T-bill (13-week) + 1.5% on borrowed amount
- Leverage
- Leverage rebalanced daily
- Out of sample
- The rules were fixed using data up to 2015. Everything after is a test on years the rules had not seen.
- What it trades
- Liquid US ETFs: the S&P 500, its sectors, gold and long Treasuries. EU members can use UCITS equivalents.
- Limits
- A backtest can't include every real-world effect: slippage on large orders, taxes, and changes in how markets behave. Results will differ.
Hypothetical backtest. Not actual trading. Past performance, real or simulated, does not guarantee future results. Leverage multiplies losses as well as gains. See the risk notice.